Happ goes for Astros in the desert

Baseball Betting Lines

09/05/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Newly-minted Astro lefty J.A. Happ can make it five wins in seven decisions with Houston today when they visit Chase Field to close out a three-game weekend series with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona won Friday's opener, 4-3, but Houston took game two after Carlos Lee hit the game-winning three-run home run in the eighth inning and drove in four to cap a 6-5 come-from-behind win. Lee finished 2-for-4 while Jeff Keppinger also went 2-for-4 and scored twice for the Astros, who have won four of five.

Mark Melancon (2-0) tossed a scoreless inning to grab the win in relief and Brandon Lyon stranded the potential tying run at third base in the bottom of the ninth to earn his 12th save of the season for Houston, which defeated the hosts for just a second time in their last 10 meetings.

Aaron Heilman (5-6) continued the D'Backs' year-long bullpen implosion by coughing up a three-run lead.

He suffered the loss after allowing four runs on four hits while recording just two outs for the Diamondbacks, who fell for only a second time in their last nine contests overall.

Arizona starter Joe Saunders yielded a pair of runs on three hits while walking two and fanning four in seven innings, turning a 5-2 lead over to Heilman.

Happ, a native of Spring Valley, Ill., was a surprise rookie star for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2009 and won 12 games while helping them to a second straight National League championship. He began 2010 with Philadelphia and was 1-0 in three starts before heading to Houston in the trade that sent veteran ace Roy Oswalt to the Phillies.

Happ won his first start with his new team on July 30 and is 4-2 with the Astros overall, including a complete-game gem over St. Louis on Aug. 30 in which he allowed just two hits, walked one and struck out four in a 3-0 victory.

The 27-year-old is 18-7 in 54 big-league outings.

He'll be opposed by veteran Arizona righty Rodrigo Lopez, who'll make the 194th start of a career that began with San Diego in 2000. Lopez won 15 games with Baltimore in both 2002 and 2005 and lost a league-high 18 times with the Orioles in 2006 before pitching for Colorado, Philadelphia and now the Diamondbacks since the beginning of 2007.

He and Happ were teammates with the Phillies last year, when Lopez was 3-1 in seven appearances with a 5.70 earned run average.

The 34-year-old Mexican is winless in nine starts since defeating Florida, 10-4, on July 8. In his last outing, on Aug. 29 at San Francisco, he gave up eight hits and five runs in just four innings of a 9-7 defeat.

Arizona has now won four of six meetings with the Astros this season.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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