This Week in Golf - September 2nd through September 5th

Golf Betting Lines

08/30/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - DEUTSCHE BANK CHAMPIONSHIP, TPC Boston, Norton, Massachusetts - Remember everyone, the second leg of the PGA Tour Playoffs starts on Friday to accommodate the American Labor Day holiday.

The new FedEx Cup points leader is Matt Kuchar, fresh off his victory at The Barclays on Sunday. Kuchar hit one of the best shots of the season in the playoff against Martin Laird. Kuchar's seven-iron from the rough, under a tree to two feet was as clutch a shot as you'll see.

That gave Kuchar his third PGA Tour victory and first since last year. He now stands atop the FedEx Cup points list, with three more playoff events to go in pursuit of that really large check.

Laird, who hit a darn good shot himself from the rough in the playoff, but nowhere near as good as Kuchar's, moved to third on the points list.

The man in second is the upcoming event's defending champion, Steve Stricker.

One year ago, Stricker birdied his final two holes on Monday to come from behind to win this title. He finished one stroke better than Scott Verplank and Jason Dufner and two better than Dustin Johnson, Angel Cabrera and Padraig Harrington.

Stricker ended up on top, but it was a mess through most of Monday. Eight different players owned at least a piece of the lead in the final round, but it came down to Stricker, Dufner and Verplank.

Dufner first got into the clubhouse at 16-under par, followed by Verplank, but Stricker was still on the course. Stricker drained a 15-foot birdie putt at the 17th and kicked in a two-foot birdie putt on the par-five closing hole to get the win.

Stricker continued his spectacular golf in the playoffs Sunday. He shot a five-under 66 on Sunday at The Barclays and shared third place with Kevin Streelman.

Last week's field included the top 125 on the FedEx Cup list, but that number was shrunk down to the top 100.

Tiger Woods was on the outside looking in last week. He was 112th, but his tie for 12th at The Barclays moved him to 65th. Woods won here in 2006, so maybe this is the week he breaks that winless streak of 2010.

This is the final week for Corey Pavin to make his decision on his four captain's picks for the American Ryder Cup team. Woods is certainly under consideration, as is Anthony Kim, Zach Johnson, Stewart Cink and Lucas Glover. All are in the field this week.

Colin Montgomerie rounded out his team on Sunday with Edoardo Molinari, Padraig Harrington and Luke Donald. Harrington and Donald are in the field on Friday. So too are Paul Casey and Justin Rose, the two biggest names snubbed by Monty.

Golf Channel has the action on Friday and Saturday before NBC takes over on Sunday and Monday.

Next week is the third playoff event, the BMW Championship at Cog Hill Golf & Country Club in Lemont, Ill. Woods hoisted the trophy last year en route to his second FedEx Cup in three years.

EUROPEAN TOUR

EUROPEAN MASTERS, Crans-sur-Sierre, Crans Montana, Switzerland - The first event since the European Ryder Cup was finalized and exactly one member of Monty's team is in the field.

Miguel Angel Jimenez will tee it up in Switzerland, but no one else from the European team is heading to the mountains. In fact, more vice-captains are in the field than team members. Darren Clarke and Thomas Bjorn are in the field.

One of the other big names scheduled to play is Greg Norman. The two-time major winner hasn't played a competitive round anywhere in almost 12 months after shoulder surgery.

Louis Oosthuizen, the reigning British Open champion, has also committed to the field.

Alexander Noren took home the title last year when he shot a five-under 66 on Sunday. The victory was Noren's first on the European Tour, and his only one to date. Noren has one top 10 in 2010 and that came at the China Open.

Golf Channel has the telecast all four rounds.

Next week is the KLM Open in the Netherlands, which was won by Simon Dyson last year.

CHAMPIONS TOUR

FIRST TEE OPEN AT PEBBLE BEACH, Pebble Beach Golf Links & Del Monte Golf Club, Monterey, California - Jeff Sluman goes for a third consecutive win at this championship this week.

Sluman has one other Champions Tour victory besides the two at Pebble Beach, and he hasn't enjoyed the greatest season in tour history. He has five top 10s in 2010, but two of them came in his last two starts.

Sluman aced the fifth hole and shot a four-under 68. He was the only player under par in the final three groups on Sunday, as the winds hit the California coast.

The last six players on the course last year (Sluman, Mark McNulty, Tom Lehman, Bob Gilder, Loren Roberts and Mark O'Meara) combined to shoot 14-over par on Sunday.

Play rotates over the two courses for the first two rounds, then Pebble Beach hosts on Sunday. Golfers compete with junior players and amateurs, with the top 22 juniors and top 10 amateur teams advancing to the final round.

Sluman and the other players in the field might have a fighting chance this week. Bernhard Langer, who collected his fifth Champions Tour title of the year on Sunday at the Boeing Classic, is not in the field.

Those final six players on the course last year are all in the field this year, with the exception of McNulty.

Fred Couples is scheduled to be on hand to see if he can get back into the winner's circle. Couples hasn't won since the Cap Cana Championship in late March.

Golf Channel will carry all three rounds.

Next week is the Songdo Championship, which is a new event on the Champions Tour.

NATIONWIDE TOUR

MYLAN CLASSIC, Southpointe Golf Club, Canonsburg, Pennsylvania - There's a new event on the Nationwide Tour and it's situated the Pittsburgh suburbs.

Arnold Palmer was named the honorary chairman of the tournament. Palmer's grandson Sam Saunders is in the field.

With nine tournaments left on the schedule, players are jockeying for position to get into the top 25 on the money list. That's the magic number for a PGA Tour card in 2011.

Chris Kirk took the money list lead on Sunday with his second victory of the year at the Knoxville News Sentinel Open. He's not in the field this week, so maybe Jamie Lovemark can reclaim his spot on the top.

Golf Channel has all four rounds.

Next week is the Utah Championship, which was won last year by Josh Teater.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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